Australia now has reliable access to structural timber needed to build housing, both for current and future demand. That is according to the Australian wood volumes analysis published by ABARES – the science and economics research division of the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
For Dr Jared Greenville, Executive Director of ABARES, the findings provide much-needed confidence for an industry heavily impacted by the COVID pandemic shortages, showing that demand for much-needed structural timber will increase exponentially over the coming decades.
“Timber is a valuable resource, widely used in Australia’s construction sector,” Dr Greenville said. “Demand for construction-related timber is expected to grow by about 50 per cent by 2050 as the population increases, but the volume will vary depending on our future preferences for housing types, with some houses using more timber than others.”
“On the supply side, the report indicates that Australia’s domestic log availability is projected to increase by approximately 70 per cent through to 2055 with a record availability of 16.8 million cubic metres per year of softwood sawlogs for residential construction in 2050-2054.”
of materials they could use by investing in, for example, new machinery to take different logs. (Credit: ABARES)
Dr Greenville said, “Australian plantation managers are working hard to maintain and optimise log availability, and they are working alongside mills to increase the output and variety of timber products available to the domestic market.”
International markets play a role in meeting demand in the short term
“The long-term nature of forestry production can mean that pressure is placed on supply if there is a short-run surge in demand. In those times, access to international markets has provided access to key wood product supplies, helping maintain the momentum in domestic construction,” he said.
“Global markets are expected to continue to be a reliable source in the future, despite the disruptions seen through COVID, when global freight was delayed. With strong global log availability and advances in technology and innovation, we expect global trade in forest and wood products to continue.”
at around 2.0 million cubic metres, with import penetration rising from 20% in 2019-20 and peaking in 2021-22 at just over 30%. (Source: ABARES)
The ABARES analysis comes after Wood Central reported that a new report, produced by Forest and Wood Products Australia (FWPA), predicted that the demand for structural softwood will peak at more than 2.5 million cubic metres in 2027.
The More Houses Sooner report, authored by IndustryEdge’s Tim Woods, is focused on using timber to fill the gap – and includes ramping up free-standing and multi-residential construction by between 33,000 (current) and 66,000 (current and unmet demand) new builds over historical averages (192,100) to deliver on the country’s ambitious housing targets:
A key challenge is the increasing reliance on imports, which could approach or exceed 40% of total supply during peak periods,” the report said, spurred by growth in mid-rise (4-8 storey) construction. However, “if demand for free-standing dwellings (also) rises, the need for sawn structural timber is expected to grow significantly.”
