Five-time world champions Brazil will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating tournament co-host the United States in the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on 19 July — if every game was decided by forest estate. That is according to a new Wood Central simulation that settles all 104 fixtures of the biggest World Cup in history on national forestland, using official FAO data, after the same formula correctly tipped Spain to beat England in the Euro 2024 final.
With 494.2 million hectares of forest, Brazil cannot be beaten under the format, and the simulation hands the Seleção a sixth star 24 years after their last title in 2002. The tournament, US President Donald Trump described as “the largest, most complex set of events in sports history”, opened yesterday with wins for Mexico and South Korea, both of which were called by the forecast table.
All three hosts win their groups, though their runs end very differently: Canada’s 346.9 million hectares falls to Brazil in a heavyweight semi-final before beating Sweden for bronze, the best finish in Canadian World Cup history. The United States reached a home final by seeing off Iran, Colombia and Sweden, whose fourth-place run is the country’s deepest at a World Cup since finishing third in 1994, also on American soil.
Australia delivers the tournament’s best story, carrying the fourth-largest forest estate in the field at 134 million hectares, behind the United States in Group D. The Socceroos beat New Zealand in a trans-Tasman round of 32 derby, then knocked out defending champion Argentina in the round of 16 to surpass the high-water marks of 2006 and 2022, before Canada ended the run in the quarter-finals.
England, world champions on home soil in 1966, suffer the heaviest blow of the expanded format, finishing bottom of Group L on 1.31 million hectares behind Ghana, Panama and Croatia. Scotland, which has never escaped a World Cup group in nine attempts, finally reaches the knockouts as the last of the eight best third-placed teams, edging Switzerland by a little over 200,000 hectares before Mexico ends the adventure.
The knockout rounds fell a procession of favourites, with world No. 1 France beaten by third-placed Türkiye, back at a World Cup for the first time since claiming bronze in 2002, and four-time winners Germany losing to Norway by fewer than 800,000 hectares. Reigning European champion Spain falls to Colombia in the round of 16, whilst Portugal never reaches the knockouts, finishing bottom of Group K as DR Congo, at its first finals since qualifying as Zaire in 1974, tops the group on 124 million hectares.
At the foot of the table, Qatar, host of the last World Cup, enters as the only nation whose forest area the FAO records as zero, with Egypt’s 45,000 hectares and Jordan’s 98,000 hectares keeping the desert nations company. The figures come from the FAO’s official forest accounting, which senior forestry officer Anssi Pekkarinen said delivers “reliable and transparent insights into the world’s forest resources.”
Curaçao, the smallest country ever to qualify, holds just 100 hectares of forest and exits at the bottom of Group E, whilst Russia, holder of the world’s largest estate at more than 800 million hectares, remains banned from FIFA qualification over the war in Ukraine — the same shadow it cast over the forest-area Euros. According to FAO figures, Brazil’s winning margin in the final runs to 184.4 million hectares, a gap larger than the entire forest estate of 45 of the 48 competing nations.
THE FULL SIMULATION, GAME BY GAME
All figures are hectares of national forest, per the FAO (FAOSTAT, 2022); England and Scotland per Forest Research (March 2025). The bigger forest wins every match, with the winner listed first. Dates and venues are the real fixture slots; knockout ties follow the official FIFA bracket, with third-placed teams slotted within FIFA’s bracket constraints.
Group A
11 June: Mexico 65,440,000 – South Africa 16,980,000 (Mexico City)
11 June: South Korea 6,270,000 – Czechia 2,680,000 (Guadalajara)
18 June: South Africa 16,980,000 – Czechia 2,680,000 (Atlanta)
18 June: Mexico 65,440,000 – South Korea 6,270,000 (Guadalajara)
24 June: Mexico 65,440,000 – Czechia 2,680,000 (Mexico City)
24 June: South Africa 16,980,000 – South Korea 6,270,000 (Monterrey)
Through: Mexico and South Africa; South Korea advances as the best third
Group B
12 June: Canada 346,850,000 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,190,000 (Toronto)
13 June: Switzerland 1,280,000 – Qatar 0 (San Francisco Bay Area)
18 June: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,190,000 – Switzerland 1,280,000 (Los Angeles)
18 June: Canada 346,850,000 – Qatar 0 (Vancouver)
24 June: Canada 346,850,000 – Switzerland 1,280,000 (Vancouver)
24 June: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,190,000 – Qatar 0 (Seattle)
Through: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Switzerland miss the third-place cut
Group C
13 June: Scotland 1,490,000 – Haiti 340,000 (Boston)
13 June: Brazil 494,200,000 – Morocco 5,760,000 (New York New Jersey)
19 June: Brazil 494,200,000 – Haiti 340,000 (Philadelphia)
19 June: Morocco 5,760,000 – Scotland 1,490,000 (Boston)
24 June: Brazil 494,200,000 – Scotland 1,490,000 (Miami)
24 June: Morocco 5,760,000 – Haiti 340,000 (Atlanta)
Through: Brazil and Morocco, Scotland advance as the best third
Group D
12 June: United States 309,800,000 – Paraguay 15,540,000 (Los Angeles)
13 June: Australia 134,010,000 – Türkiye 22,530,000 (Vancouver)
19 June: Türkiye 22,530,000 – Paraguay 15,540,000 (San Francisco Bay Area)
19 June: United States 309,800,000 – Australia 134,010,000 (Seattle)
25 June: United States 309,800,000 – Türkiye 22,530,000 (Los Angeles)
25 June: Australia 134,010,000 – Paraguay 15,540,000 (San Francisco Bay Area)
Through: the United States and Australia, Türkiye advances as the best third overall
Group E
14 June: Ecuador 12,370,000 – Côte d’Ivoire 2,610,000 (Philadelphia)
14 June: Germany 11,420,000 – Curaçao 100 (Houston)
20 June: Germany 11,420,000 – Côte d’Ivoire 2,610,000 (Toronto)
20 June: Ecuador 12,370,000 – Curaçao 100 (Kansas City)
25 June: Côte d’Ivoire 2,610,000 – Curaçao 100 (Philadelphia)
25 June: Ecuador 12,370,000 – Germany 11,420,000 (New York New Jersey)
Through: Ecuador and Germany, Côte d’Ivoire advances as the best third
Group F
14 June: Japan 24,940,000 – Netherlands 370,000 (Dallas)
14 June: Sweden 27,980,000 – Tunisia 710,000 (Monterrey)
20 June: Sweden 27,980,000 – Netherlands 370,000 (Houston)
20 June: Japan 24,940,000 – Tunisia 710,000 (Monterrey)
25 June: Sweden 27,980,000 – Japan 24,940,000 (Dallas)
25 June: Tunisia 710,000 – Netherlands 370,000 (Kansas City)
Through: Sweden and Japan; Tunisia miss the third-place cut
Group G
15 June: Iran 10,780,000 – New Zealand 9,930,000 (Los Angeles)
15 June: Belgium 690,000 – Egypt 45,000 (Seattle)
21 June: Iran 10,780,000 – Belgium 690,000 (Los Angeles)
21 June: New Zealand 9,930,000 – Egypt 45,000 (Vancouver)
26 June: Iran 10,780,000 – Egypt 45,000 (Seattle)
26 June: New Zealand 9,930,000 – Belgium 690,000 (Vancouver)
Through: Iran and New Zealand; Belgium miss the third-place cut
Group H
15 June: Uruguay 2,070,000 – Saudi Arabia 980,000 (Miami)
15 June: Spain 18,580,000 – Cabo Verde 46,300 (Atlanta)
21 June: Uruguay 2,070,000 – Cabo Verde 46,300 (Miami)
21 June: Spain 18,580,000 – Saudi Arabia 980,000 (Atlanta)
26 June: Saudi Arabia 980,000 – Cabo Verde 46,300 (Houston)
26 June: Spain 18,580,000 – Uruguay 2,070,000 (Guadalajara)
Through: Spain and Uruguay; Saudi Arabia misses the third-place cut
Group I
16 June: France 17,420,000 – Senegal 7,990,000 (New York New Jersey)
16 June: Norway 12,200,000 – Iraq 830,000 (Boston)
22 June: Norway 12,200,000 – Senegal 7,990,000 (New York New Jersey)
22 June: France 17,420,000 – Iraq 830,000 (Philadelphia)
26 June: France 17,420,000 – Norway 12,200,000 (Boston)
26 June: Senegal 7,990,000 – Iraq 830,000 (Toronto)
Through: France and Norway; Senegal advances as the best third
Group J
16 June: Argentina 28,360,000 – Algeria 1,970,000 (Kansas City)
16 June: Austria 3,900,000 – Jordan 97,500 (San Francisco Bay Area)
22 June: Argentina 28,360,000 – Austria 3,900,000 (Dallas)
22 June: Algeria 1,970,000 – Jordan 97,500 (San Francisco Bay Area)
27 June: Austria 3,900,000 – Algeria 1,970,000 (Kansas City)
27 June: Argentina 28,360,000 – Jordan 97,500 (Dallas)
Through: Argentina and Austria; Algeria advances as the best third
Group K
17 June: DR Congo 123,950,000 – Portugal 3,310,000 (Houston)
17 June: Colombia 58,740,000 – Uzbekistan 3,740,000 (Mexico City)
23 June: Uzbekistan 3,740,000 – Portugal 3,310,000 (Houston)
23 June: DR Congo 123,950,000 – Colombia 58,740,000 (Guadalajara)
27 June: Colombia 58,740,000 – Portugal 3,310,000 (Miami)
27 June: DR Congo 123,950,000 – Uzbekistan 3,740,000 (Atlanta)
Through: DR Congo and Colombia; Uzbekistan advances as the best third
Group L
17 June: Ghana 8,000,000 – Panama 4,190,000 (Toronto)
17 June: Croatia 1,940,000 – England 1,310,000 (Dallas)
23 June: Ghana 8,000,000 – England 1,310,000 (Boston)
23 June: Panama 4,190,000 – Croatia 1,940,000 (Toronto)
27 June: Panama 4,190,000 – England 1,310,000 (New York New Jersey)
27 June: Ghana 8,000,000 – Croatia 1,940,000 (Philadelphia)
Through: Ghana and Panama; Croatia advances as the best third
Best third-placed teams (eight advance): Türkiye 22,530,000, Senegal 7,990,000, South Korea 6,270,000, Uzbekistan 3,740,000, Côte d’Ivoire 2,610,000, Algeria 1,970,000, Croatia 1,940,000, Scotland 1,490,000. Eliminated: Switzerland 1,280,000, Saudi Arabia 980,000, Tunisia 710,000, Belgium 690,000.
Round of 32
28 June: South Africa 16,980,000 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,190,000 (Los Angeles)
29 June: Ecuador 12,370,000 – South Korea 6,270,000 (Boston)
29 June: Sweden 27,980,000 – Morocco 5,760,000 (Monterrey)
29 June: Brazil 494,200,000 – Japan 24,940,000 (Houston)
30 June: Türkiye 22,530,000 – France 17,420,000 (New York New Jersey)
30 June: Norway 12,200,000 – Germany 11,420,000 (Dallas)
30 June: Mexico 65,440,000 – Scotland 1,490,000 (Mexico City)
1 July: Ghana 8,000,000 – Uzbekistan 3,740,000 (Atlanta)
1 July: United States 309,800,000 – Senegal 7,990,000 (San Francisco Bay Area)
1 July: Iran 10,780,000 – Algeria 1,970,000 (Seattle)
2 July: Colombia 58,740,000 – Panama 4,190,000 (Toronto)
2 July: Spain 18,580,000 – Austria 3,900,000 (Los Angeles)
2 July: Canada 346,850,000 – Côte d’Ivoire 2,610,000 (Vancouver)
3 July: Argentina 28,360,000 – Uruguay 2,070,000 (Miami)
3 July: DR Congo 123,950,000 – Croatia 1,940,000 (Kansas City)
3 July: Australia 134,010,000 – New Zealand 9,930,000 (Dallas)
Round of 16
4 July: Türkiye 22,530,000 – Ecuador 12,370,000 (Philadelphia)
4 July: Sweden 27,980,000 – South Africa 16,980,000 (Houston)
5 July: Brazil 494,200,000 – Norway 12,200,000 (New York New Jersey)
5 July: Mexico 65,440,000 – Ghana 8,000,000 (Mexico City)
6 July: Colombia 58,740,000 – Spain 18,580,000 (Dallas)
6 July: United States 309,800,000 – Iran 10,780,000 (Seattle)
7 July: Australia 134,010,000 – Argentina 28,360,000 (Atlanta)
7 July: Canada 346,850,000 – DR Congo 123,950,000 (Vancouver)
Quarter-finals
9 July: Sweden 27,980,000 – Türkiye 22,530,000 (Boston)
10 July: United States 309,800,000 – Colombia 58,740,000 (Los Angeles)
11 July: Brazil 494,200,000 – Mexico 65,440,000 (Miami)
11 July: Canada 346,850,000 – Australia 134,010,000 (Kansas City)
Semi-finals
14 July: United States 309,800,000 – Sweden 27,980,000 (Dallas)
15 July: Brazil 494,200,000 – Canada 346,850,000 (Atlanta)
Third-place playoff
18 July: Canada 346,850,000 – Sweden 27,980,000 (Miami)
Final
19 July: Brazil 494,200,000 – United States 309,800,000 (MetLife Stadium, New Jersey)
