British Columbia’s timber mills are running at just 67% with operators ramping up pressure on officials to do a deal with US trade officials days before duties on softwood could more than double. “When that kicks in, there will be mills that curtail, there will be mills that close in Canada without a doubt, and that is deeply concerning to me,” according to Ravi Parmar, B.C. Forest Minister, who spoke to the Vancouver Sun overnight.
Wood Central understands that current duties, which have been 12 and 14 per cent, could soar to 26 and 47 per cent: “And that is deeply concerning to me, because that is going to have a significant impact on workers,” Parmar said, adding that B.C Premier David Eby and Prime Minister Mark Carney have both flagged lumber as a “top priority” for trade negotiations.
“I think, in the case of softwood, we are benefiting from the broader trade complexities we’re dealing with with President Trump and his administration,” Parmar said. “Any time that we’ve been able to secure a deal with Americans on softwood, it’s always when it’s lived on the prime minister’s desk.”
Parmar’s impression of the previous government’s stance was that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delegated the responsibility: “So again, we remain optimistic that there is a pathway for a deal,” Parmar said. “British Columbia remains ready, and I’ll be laying out some positions in the weeks ahead on how we believe we can help those discussions.”
It comes days after Prime Minister Carney flagged that quotas on lumber traded across the US border could be a potential circuit breaker for the decades-long trade dispute between the two countries: “There is normally some element of managed trade that comes out of any agreement, ” Carney said last week, which could include quotas, amongst “a variety of (other) trade factors.”
As it stands, 40% of all Canadian lumber exported across the border originates from British Columbia, with approximately 70% of all lumber imports used in housing. Last year, Wood Central reported that a 3.4% price difference is the sweet spot for substitutability between Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) and Southern Yellow Pine (SYP).
Whilst in May, a report claimed that the United States would need to increase federal timber harvests by 450% to meet the shortfall in Canadian plywood, OSB, and softwood lumber, which make up vast volumes of timber used in single— and multi-family housing: “Theoretically, the US federal lands have ample timber supplies to offset the volume of softwood lumber imported from Canada,” he said. But, “increasing federal timber harvests by (at least) 450% may be a challenge as many headwinds, aside from those related to lumber production capacity, may limit the government’s ability to ramp up timber production.”
- To learn more about the impact of duties on lumber prices, click here for Wood Central’s special feature from March 2025.
