Europe needs to cut “about” 132 million cubic metres of local timber production from its supply chains over the next decade—and will rely on timber from areas at higher risk of deforestation, illegal timber, and conflict timber. That is according to Maarit Kallio, Professor of Forest Economics and Forest Policy from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, who has flagged fresh concerns with the European Union’s Green New Deal.
Professor Kallio’s research, funded by the Finnish Forest Federation, has revealed that more than a quarter of the pledged reduction would take place in the Nordic countries—namely Finland, Norway, and Sweden—all struck by the Biodiversity Strategy and the LULUCF Regulation, both approved in June 2021. Globally, Kaillio’s research found that felling would not decrease by much, with two-thirds of the reduction offset by increased logging in North America (38%), South America (25%), China, as well as the rest of Asia (19%).
As a result, “fellings increase in countries where, for example, the spectrum of forest species is greater, the coverage of conservation areas is smaller, and the use of forests less rigorously controlled,” Professor Kallio told a seminar last month, adding that “achieving the goals of the LULUCF regulation will multiply the risk of deterioration of biodiversity in other parts of the world.”
“With the logging spill, the EU loses the economic benefits of the forest sector to other parts of the world. At the same time, there is an increased risk of biodiversity and climate challenges trickling out of the EU,” Kallio said. “That’s because when felling declines, there is a significant logging spill in the EU area to countries where the risks of biodiversity loss are higher than in the EU area.”
Supporting the research, Martta Fredrikson, CEO of the Finnish Forest Foundation, said that these “significant logging leaks from the EU to other parts of the world show the ineffectiveness of EU policy instruments.” At the same time, Matleena Kniivilä, the Research Manager at Natural Resources Institute Finland, said the results align with past studies: “The result (of this preliminary study) is rather disheartening,” Kniivilä said, “but it does not lessen the importance of climate and biodiversity work… it emphasises the importance of global mechanisms.”
In the research, Professor Kallio used scenario analysis to compare the forest sector development with and without EU policy measures. The project then compared the impacts of the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the LULUCF Regulation until 2035. Driven by global demand, the volume of felling in the EU is expected to rise from over 500 million cubic metres last year to a baseline of 580 million cubic metres in 2035.
- To learn more, click here for a copy of Professor Kallio’s presentation, recording and research summary, “Leakage effects of EU biodiversity and climate policies on the global forest sector and its sustainability”, which was presented last month in Helsinki, Finland.