Wood fuel removals could be 30% higher than 2005 estimates, that is according to FAO experts (and partners) who have developed a new method for estimating removals and charcoal production. And whilst estimates of wood fuel removals and charcoal production are essential for tracking global goals, the experts revealed that countries still have difficulty producing reliable data due to the complexities of measuring informal markets and direct household collection of wood fuels.
However, a new machine-learning approach – developed from research published in Nature Communications last week – is said to enhance the estimation process by building on officially submitted statistics and also information from government websites, household consumption surveys conducted by international organisations, and published research.
These estimates – which include not only stems of harvested trees but also branches harvested and dead wood collected – would mean that wood fuel removals account for more than half of the wood removed from forests and trees outside of forests globally. The research also presents new values for wood charcoal production, estimated at 50% higher than previously understood.
“Such revisions are part of FAO’s process of constant improvement and innovation in statistical methods,” according to FAO Forestry Officer Ashley Steel, one of the paper’s authors. “Wood fuel is a critical element of food security through its use for cooking and water sterilisation by many of the most vulnerable, and a clear understanding of how much is produced is vital for addressing issues related to human health, food security, energy availability and sustainable development.”
Regional differences
For 2019, Steel estimates there were 2525.7 million cubic metres of wood fuel removals globally. These removals were estimated to be 50 per cent higher in Africa and 40 per cent higher in Asia than previously thought, as well as 10 per cent lower in the Americas and 20 per cent lower in Europe. Global production of wood charcoal was estimated at 70.5 million tonnes, with estimates 20% higher in Africa and 200% higher in Asia.
The study could not determine the reasons why new estimates are different from those of previous models. Still, reasons may include differences in actual versus forecast human population growth or urbanisation rates, better incorporation of informal and undocumented production by using a consumption-based approach, changes in average household size, and the transition away from wood fuel toward charcoal and eventually towards clean energy.
Next steps
With this new methodology, Steel said FAO is now better positioned to support countries in submitting data on wood fuel removals or wood charcoal production. As this new approach provides more information and refined estimates, it can also be used to revise the data backward and create future forecasts: “This approach is a big step forward, but estimates are in a constant state of revision, incorporating new statistical methods and new data every few years. The puzzle of understanding where the wood comes from, separating, for example, wood from forests and wood from trees outside of forests or wood from tree trunks versus wood from fallen branches, remains for the next iteration of modelling and estimation to tackle,” Steel said.
For more information: Steel, E.A., Stoner, O., Podschwit, H. et al. Global wood fuel production estimates and implications. Nat Commun 16, 6227 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59733-y
