Growing volumes of timber traded into the Middle East and North Africa — one of the most important growth corridors for global forest products — have ground to a halt as US-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a Gulf crisis that has brought global shipping to a standstill (again).
It comes after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a warning on February 28 to every vessel in the Strait of Hormuz: the waterway was closing, and any ship attempting to pass would be set “ablaze.” By the following morning, traffic was down 80%…with the strait closed to all vessels on Monday.
As it stands, 170 containerships carrying 450,000 TEU, 1.4% of the global container fleet, are stranded inside the strait with no clear path out, according to Linerlytica co-founder Hua Joo Tan.
All four of the world’s largest container shipping operators have suspended operations. Maersk has formally invoked Clause 20 of its Bill of Lading — a force majeure provision — implementing an Emergency Freight Increase across all cargo to and from the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman.
The current crisis is structurally different from anything the world has faced before. When Houthi attacks forced vessels off the Suez route in 2024, the Cape of Good Hope was painful but passable. However, a Hormuz closure removes the destination, leaving no available detour.
What is at stake in the Gulf
The MENA region has, in recent years, become one of the most important and consequential growth markets for timber exporters. Last year, Wood Central reported that Russia shipped 1.7 million cubic metres of lumber there in 2024, whilst the American Hardwood Export Council has successfully grown trade in the United Arab Emirates (up 27%), Saudi Arabia (up 8%) and Egypt (up 15%) on the back of major projects in the region.
However, that pipeline is now stalled at the port gate.
“The Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping,” according to Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s Chief Safety and Security Officer, who spoke to Fox News on Sunday. “Ships in the Persian Gulf are under threat from Iranian attacks — they’re trying to depart to get away from the threat zone.”
It is a pattern that timber exporters have felt before.
During last June’s 12-day Israel-Iran war, Mike Cardin, of Tennessee-based Cardin Forest Products, was one of scores of traders who had rerouted Gulf-bound hardwood shipments. “If it keeps escalating, there won’t be any orders coming in for the next, who knows how long,” he told Fox Business at the time. Whilst his brother Jarrod was more blunt: “Right now, no one knows what’s going to happen. It’s shut down that export market pretty much. It’s a little painful — we’re stuck with warehouses full.”
That conflict passed within two weeks…but this one could drag on much longer.
Finland, Russia, and the wider exposure
The current disruption reaches beyond Gulf-facing exporters. “Approximately 20% of the forest industry’s exports go to Asia, and the majority of those shipments pass through the Suez Canal,” said Maarit Lindström, Director and Chief Economist at the Finnish Forest Industries Federation. If vessels are forced to reroute around southern Africa, journeys extend by thousands of kilometres — delays of several weeks are possible.
“If the situation continues, it will affect freight prices and competition for containers,” Lindström warned. Of Finland’s Asian exports, roughly half is pulp, with wood products accounting for 26%, cartonboard 15%, and paper 8% — all product lines now facing extended transit times and tightening container availability. Finland exports approximately €3 million worth of forest products to Qatar alone each year.
Until last week, freight markets were recovering after two years of major instability in the region. A Red Sea return in late 2026 had been one of the few tailwinds analysts were counting on — lower rates, shorter transit times, freed-up capacity. “The repercussions of the joint military operation will see the further weaponisation of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta.
And there is a second cost that the mainstream has largely missed. QatarEnergy halted production following attacks on its facilities, sending gas prices up 50% in two days. With the Strait carrying 22% of global LNG, Asian based sawmills running on gas could face an energy cost spike on top of the freight hit.
