A major new research project is underway in Brisbane to upgrade how Australia predicts timber durability, helping the industry make smarter decisions and avoid costly mistakes. Led by Dr Chandan Kumar and a research team at the Department of Primary Industries (DPI), the project is part of the National Centre for Timber Durability and Design Life and focuses on improving Australia’s Service Life Prediction (SLP) model.
This model is crucial for estimating how long different timber species and wood products will last in various environments, from wet and humid coastal areas to dry inland regions. While steel and concrete have well-established prediction models, timber is more complex because it is a natural material. Its durability depends on the species, treatment, exposure, climate, design, and threats like fungi and termites.
And this complexity has real-world consequences. For example, when someone uses untreated pine for a garden bed or deck exposed to weather, it may fail in just a few years. The timber isn’t to blame – it’s simply the wrong product for that use. A good service life model can help builders, landscapers, asset managers, and homeowners choose the right timber for the right place, avoiding premature failures, costly repairs and damage to wood’s reputation as a building material.
A more accurate SLP model can also help plan maintenance and replacements, support circular economy efforts by identifying timber suitable for reuse, assess how timber products might perform under future climate conditions, and reduce the risk of failure in critical structures such as bridges or retaining walls.
Ultimately, it supports better design, safer buildings, less waste, and greater confidence in using timber as a long-term, sustainable material.
Australia once led the world in this field through the TimberLife project, a landmark 10-year research initiative (1997–2007) delivered by CSIRO and funded by FWPA under the leadership of Dr Bob Leicester. The TimberLife project produced a model and software that helped predict how timber would perform in various applications, from in-ground posts to marine environments and termite-prone areas.
Unfortunately, after the project ended in 2007, research in this area effectively stopped. Meanwhile, Europe continued to improve its models through a series of major collaborative projects, incorporating more variables, better data, and climate change projections. This new project aims to rebuild and modernise Australia’s model, drawing on everything learned over the past two decades and guided by the original TimberLife leadership.
The original model was based on the best available data at the time, much of it from L-joint field tests and expert judgment. Since then, DPI has gathered more detailed field data from decades-long durability trials and a national trial launched in 2020 under the National Centre. The updated model will use this rich dataset to improve accuracy. For example, the current approach groups timber into broad durability classes, but new evidence shows that species within the same class can behave very differently under the same conditions. The team will look at more precise characteristics like wood density to improve predictions.
The existing hazard maps, which help assess environmental risk, were mainly based on rainfall. But new research by Lesley Francis has shown that vapour pressure deficit—which reflects how quickly timber can dry out—is a much stronger predictor of decay. So, instead of using four broad zones, the new model will allow users to select exact locations using a pin-drop or coordinates to get site-specific predictions.
The in-ground model will also be updated to include soil moisture, a key decay driver already used in European models but previously missing from the Australian version. To ensure the model is accurate and useful, the research team is building a browser-based online platform. This tool will be:
• Accessible via desktop or mobile, with no installation required.
• Easy to update and expand with new features.
• Usable on-site by builders, engineers, asset managers, or specifiers.
• Available publicly or through log-in access, depending on need.
A demonstrated version of the platform has already been tested to give stakeholders a preview of what’s coming. The aim is to ensure the final tool is practical, relevant and aligned with real-world industry use.
This project is guided by a diverse and experienced steering committee, which includes voices from research, government, and industry. Members include:
• Andrew McLaughlin (AKD),
• Dr Bill Leggate (Griffith University, and formerly DPI).
• Christian Brischke (Thünen Institute, Germany).
• Dr Harry Greaves (HG Consulting), Melbourne.
• Ian Blanden and Dr Chris Lafferty (FWPA).
• Dr Jeff Morrell (University of South Australia).
• Professor Keith Crews (University of Queensland).
• Kyra Wood (University of Tasmania).
• Tripti Singh (University of the Sunshine Coast and director, National Centre for Timber Durability and Design Life).
Joining the research team are Chandan Kumar, Babar Hassan, Lesley Francis, Maryam Shirmohammadi, Stuart Meldrum, and technicians from the Forest Product Innovation team. A special acknowledgement goes to Bob Leicester for his continued support, and to the late Collin McKenzie, whose contributions to timber durability research are gratefully remembered.
What comes next?
Work is already underway. The team has processed national climate data from 1968 to 2024, is compiling and analysing decades of field trials, and is calibrating models to reflect the latest insights. They’re also refining assumptions about decay rates and exploring the integration of termite risk and building envelope performance. With support from industry and expert guidance, this project will ensure Australia once again leads in timber durability science, and provides the tools the industry needs to build confidently, sustainably, and smartly.
- To learn more or share your feedback, contact Dr Chandan Kumare…
