Three days out from the Farrer by-election, One Nation candidate David Farley is the only candidate to publicly commit to the native hardwood supply chain, with red gum operators across the southern Riverina backing the Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. That is according to Maree McCaskill, the CEO of Timber NSW, who told Wood Central that the major parties have largely ignored red gum and western hardwoods in the electorate for years.
McCaskill said the southern Riverina red gum sector had received no substantive policy engagement from the Liberals or the Nationals during the 2025 election cycle, with the silence now testing voter loyalty in a seat the Liberals have held continuously since 2001. “Voters are considering changing their vote from the traditional parties,” McCaskill said.
Farley has emerged as the red-hot favourite to win the seat, ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe, the Liberals’ Raissa Butkowski and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson. Polymarket prediction-market traders now give Farley a 63 per cent probability of victory against Milthorpe at 37 per cent, with UComms polling on 9-10 April pointing to a gender-split race that has One Nation leading among male voters and Milthorpe ahead with women.
Last month, Farley travelled to Barham for a private meeting that ran overtime as he pressed delegates from Gelletly Red Gum Firewood, Arbuthnot Saw Mill, O’Brien’s Red Gum and Timber NSW on the structure of the red gum sector, its role in fire response across the Murray Valley and its contribution to regional employment. Wood Central understands the meeting was arranged within 24 hours of the industry approaching the One Nation campaign, after earlier outreach to the Liberal and National parties went unanswered.
McCaskill said Ley made no attempt to address timber industry issues across her 25 years as the Member for Farrer, with every agricultural sector featured on the former Liberal leader’s electorate page except timber, despite the substantial red gum and western hardwoods presence inside the seat. The industry then approached the Nationals more than eight months ago seeking a forestry policy commitment, with a response six weeks later confirming the party held no policy on the sector.
McCaskill confirmed Climate 200-funded independent Michelle Milthorpe, who polled 20 per cent at the 2025 election, declined to engage with the industry’s questions on native forestry during that campaign, with the broader Climate 200-funded cohort in the House of Representatives largely backing closure of the native forest sector across mainland Australia. The contrast comes as Wood Central reported on Ley’s role in stalling Regional Forest Agreement reform during her tenure as Environment Minister.
McCaskill said she had worked with Farley in the 1990s during his time leading Colly Farms, the NSW-based cotton operation he ran before going on to head Australian Agricultural Company and US cotton marketing co-operative Calcot. His forensic knowledge of the Murray-Darling Basin river system, water allocations and global commodity markets would translate directly to the federal parliament, McCaskill said.
Farley chairs Speak Up 4 Water, the irrigator and producer lobby group active across the southern Riverina, and joined One Nation before Ley’s February leadership spill loss triggered her resignation from parliament. Hanson confirmed on 13 February that One Nation would contest the by-election, with the party preselecting Farley from a field of 80 candidates on 27 February as recent national polling placed One Nation’s primary vote at 28 per cent against the Coalition’s 18 per cent.
Please note: Wood Central will not take a political stance on the Farrer by-election and invites all candidates in the seat to provide a contribution to the masthead. For more information on the former member, Sussan Ley, click here for Wood Central’s exclusive on the former federal Liberal leader’s role in “stabbing” the native hardwood industry in the back.
