Global governments are racing the clock to shore up trade agreements ahead of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, introduced on April 8 but stalled for 90 days, which are due to take effect next week (July 9). “We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television yesterday.
And whilst lumber – as well as copper and critical minerals – are not tied up in these tariffs (and will instead be subject to a National Security probe), Canada lumber traders are concerned that a decision to more than double duties on more than 12 billion board feet of softwood lumber shipped into the United States every year from later this month could be disastrous for companies and communities on both sides of the border.
“This really could be a huge impact specifically to Northwestern and Northern Ontario,” according to Rick Dumas, the Mayor of Marathon – a small town in northwestern Ontario, Canada, “but for that matter, all of Canada in regards to the lumber sector.”
Dumas, who is also the President of the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association (NOMA), is concerned that a decision by the US Department of Commerce to impose a countervailing and anti-dumping rate of more than 34.45% on all lumber imported from Canada to the United States, up from 14.5%, may have adverse effects. And with the tariffs days away from taking effect, Dumas has called on all levels of government to act with urgency—to help resolve a dispute that has its origins back in the late 1700s.
“We just got to continue to make sure that we’re lobbying on behalf of our communities and bring the voice of the North, specifically the Northwest, so the government understands clearly that this will have devastating impacts if we continue to see these tariffs applied,” he said. “Let’s get the deal on the table for the end of July. NOMA is always there in support of the communities it represents. We’re hopefully all speaking with one voice, making sure we protect our local economies.”
Pointing to the trickle-down impact of the “devastating” tariffs on businesses, the mayor said the consequences extend beyond the mills and forestry operations: “If the tariffs are impacting those single-industry towns, the sawmills, the mills, it’s a devastating blow to the economy,” he said. “It slowly trickles down. Before you know it, you start seeing storefronts close up, fewer jobs in the service sector, fewer jobs in everything. The economy within that whole region starts to collapse.”
“It’s really hard to work with a moving target,” said Dumas. “Hopefully, there’s some headway being made over the next 30 days. I think the agreement between the two (governments) was to try to get this done by late July and have an agreement on the table so that both Canadian and American companies can go forward without these huge, impactful tariffs and potential job losses.”
Why US Forests alone can’t solve the country’s lumber needs
In March, Wood Central reported on a Global Wood Trends report claiming that the US Forest Service is under-resourced and ill-equipped to deliver on Trump’s agenda to “free up” forests for domestic lumber production and reduce dependence on Canadian and European wood. “Even with executive orders promoting federal timber harvesting, legal battles from environmental groups are likely to delay or block proposed logging operations,” the report said. “The timber industry faces a severe workforce shortage, including a lack of loggers, truck drivers, road builders, and mill workers.”
Whilst in May, a Fastmarkets report claimed that the United States would need to increase federal timber harvests by 450% to meet the shortfall in Canadian plywood, OSB, and softwood lumber, which make up vast volumes of timber used in single— and multi-family housing: “Theoretically, the US federal lands have ample timber supplies to offset the volume of softwood lumber imported from Canada,” he said. But, “increasing federal timber harvests by (at least) 450% may be a challenge as many headwinds, aside from those related to lumber production capacity, may limit the government’s ability to ramp up timber production.”
- To learn more about the impact of duties on lumber prices, click here for Wood Central’s special feature from March 2025.
