Global pulp markets are heading into 2026 under pressure, with buyers remaining cautious. New data from Lesprom shows long-fibre pulp still below $1,500 per ton, a price that has kept many customers from making major purchases as China expands its short-fibre production.
The slowdown reflects a market struggling to find balance after two years of uneven demand. Analysts say the weakness is no longer a brief dip but the result of too much new supply entering the system.
In their latest pulp webinar earlier this month, Fastmarkets analysts Matt Graves and Bryan Smith described a market where buyers are holding back, keeping inventories low and avoiding long‑term commitments. They said trading activity has thinned as customers wait for clearer signals on where prices are heading.
Producers have tried to steady conditions by taking downtime and reducing output, but these efforts have not been enough to offset new capacity coming online in Asia and Latin America. Traders say the gap between producer asking prices and buyer expectations has widened, slowing deals across major regions.
At the same time, Patrick Cavanagh, Senior Economist at Fastmarkets forest products, warned that China’s growing ability to produce its own short-fibre pulp could reduce global import demand for years. He said even small increases in China’s domestic output can influence global pricing because the country has long been the world’s largest buyer.
This shift matters because China has traditionally helped absorb excess supply when other regions softened. But as more modern mills start up there, exporters in Europe, North America, and Brazil face tougher competition for a shrinking pool of buyers.
Customers are responding by delaying purchases and negotiating shorter contracts. Many are using the soft market to secure better terms, adding to the sense of hesitation across the industry.
Some analysts see early signs of stability amid several planned mill expansions in Europe and North America that have been postponed. They note that demand for tissue, hygiene products, and packaging remains steady, even if it is not growing fast enough to absorb the new supply.
Still, the small recovery in short-fibre grades has not been enough to shift the overall mood. The market remains defined by oversupply, cautious buying, and shifting trade flows, leaving producers with limited room to raise prices.
For now, the global pulp industry is moving through a period shaped more by long‑term structural changes than short‑term swings. As the Fastmarkets team suggested, the market may gain clearer direction in 2026, but confidence across the supply chain will take longer to rebuild.
