Canada’s loss is Sweden’s gain, with Canada shedding 4.7 percentage points of U.S. softwood lumber import share in January 2026 as Sweden added 6.2 and Finland a further 0.2 year on year. That is according to Lesprom Analytics, which shows total U.S. softwood imports fell 609,000 cubic metres compared with January 2025 — a decline driven almost entirely by lower Canadian volumes.
The move follows Washington’s August 2025 decision to set final combined countervailing and antidumping duty rates on Canadian lumber at between 26.47 per cent and 47.65 per cent, with most exporters assigned a combined rate of 35.19 per cent. It comes as Wood Central reported that Canadian lumber imports fell 28 per cent year on year in January, with just 1,569.3 thousand cubic metres crossing the border — the weakest January result in years.
Sweden’s advance builds on a full-year 2025 trend, with its SPF-grade trade into the U.S. growing 21 per cent to 1.11 million cubic metres. As it stands, Canada still accounts for the overwhelming majority of U.S. softwood imports — though at 24.62 million cubic metres in 2025, its volumes are down 12 per cent year on year and more than 47 per cent below the 2005 peak, as Wood Central reported when total U.S. softwood imports crashed to a 20-year low.
Sweden’s gains come as the country’s sawmilling sector faces at least SEK 2 billion in additional operating costs in 2026 — driven by EU Emissions Trading System reforms and a rail freight charge that has risen more than 600 per cent since 2010, as Wood Central reported in January. “This requires flexibility, rapid adaptability and a continued strong presence in several markets,” Olle Berg, Executive Vice President of market and business development at Setra Group, told a Timber Exchange webinar last week, speaking about Sweden’s export strategy amid mounting global shipping pressures.
