The Tasmanian government has been urged to pause new native forest logging contracts, with two different reports commissioned by the Wilderness Society warning the state could face payouts of between $155 million and $300 million if it cannot meet contracted supply ahead of federal environment law reforms taking effect from mid-2027. The push, backed by the Greens and three independent members of the Tasmanian Parliament, is calling on Premier Jeremy Rockliff to defer fresh contract signatures until the EPBC Act overhaul is finalised and remaining native saw log volumes are confirmed.
Speaking to the Mercury today, Optimal Economics chief economist Stephen Walters said the federal legislative changes would come alongside difficult market conditions for timber producers, including falling demand, persistently low prices, rising costs, and more intense overseas competition. “The report warns that forestry-related risks add pressure to Tasmania’s already deteriorating fiscal position,” Walters said, pointing to rising debt and persistent budget deficits as constraints on the state’s capacity to absorb more liabilities.
The Wilderness Society’s modelling puts the lower-bound exposure at $155 million and the upper-bound at $300 million, with the variance driven by the volume of contracted native saw logs the state cannot deliver from a forest estate facing reduced approvals under the reformed Commonwealth regime.
Wilderness Society campaigner Hughie Nicklason called on Rockliff to halt negotiations until federal reforms are finalised and supply is confirmed, warning that Tasmania’s budget could not absorb a fresh wave of contract payouts on top of existing pressure. “The state is already in a very dire economic situation,” Nicklason said.
The Wilderness Society was joined at the Hobart launch by Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff, Greens members Vica Bayley, Cecily Rosol and Tabatha Badger, and independent members Peter George, Helen Burnett and Kristie Johnston, who called on Rockliff and Resources Minister Felix Ellis to publicly defer contract signatures until volumes are confirmed. The push followed a delegation visit to Canberra last week, where Ellis sought “a clear guarantee” that the Tasmanian timber industry would not be worse off under the Albanese Government’s changes.
Ellis told supporters via Facebook that the Canberra delegation had travelled “to support the future of our forest industry” and reaffirmed the state had no intention of closing the native forest sector. “These changes will not end the industry,” Ellis said, adding the priority was now to lock in long-term supply contracts that would give Tasmanian timber processors the confidence to invest while Commonwealth law changes were navigated.
The pressure on Tasmania’s contract decisions comes against the 2022 Sustainable Timbers Tasmania assessment of high-quality eucalypt saw log supply, which projected total production of high-grade logs would remain at 137,000 cubic metres a year from 2027, even as the share coming directly from native forests dropped to 58,000 cubic metres. The 79,000-cubic-metre gap is at the centre of the Wilderness Society’s argument that long-term contracts written against an unconfirmed native resource will trigger payout liabilities once supply cannot be delivered.
Optimal Economics has put that exposure at between $155 million and $300 million, with the Tasmanian government continuing to signal it intends to sign new long-term supply contracts before the EPBC reforms take effect from mid-2027.
