New Zealand’s wood exporters are sweating on the outcome of a U.S. national security probe that could throw a spanner in the works of more than NZ$370 million in trade. At the centre is the Section 232 Investigation into timber, lumber, and derivative imports, which could see tariffs imposed on products entering the U.S. tariff-free. That includes huge volumes of Radiata pine boards, mouldings, and primed products stocked by Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Menards.
Over the weekend, President Trump announced via Truth Social that a new tariff probe into furniture—believed to be linked to the Section 232 investigation—will conclude within 50 days. That was followed by the release of the draft EU–U.S. Agreement Framework, which sets a ceiling of 15 per cent on any Section 232 tariffs applied to lumber. While the cap offers some reassurance, exporters warn that even a modest increase could be damaging.
“These announcements create further uncertainty,” said Mark Ross, Chief Executive of the New Zealand Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association (WPMA). “A survey of our main U.S. exporters of wood products to the US highlighted that a tariff rate over 5 per cent or higher will have a significant hit on their profitability in the longer term.”
And with domestic demand softening, the U.S. has become increasingly vital for processors. Ross said profitable export markets are critical to industry growth and praised Trade Minister Todd McClay for advocating on behalf of the sector during recent negotiations in Washington. “Having our Trade Minister…speaking up in support of the NZ wood processing industry…is highly valued by WPMA members,” Ross said. “We thank the Minister and his negotiation team for backing our exporters.”
Ross stressed the importance of presenting a united front to U.S. decision makers. “The key is to present a united face across industry and government…that our products are not a threat to their domestic timber manufacturing or supply chain.”
Exporters are already feeling pressure from U.S. customers to reduce prices, and Ross warned that passing on any new tariff costs would be difficult. “While the Section 232 Investigation continues, WPMA will do what we can to advocate to keep New Zealand imported timber, lumber and their derivatives into the United States tariff-free,” Ross said. “But, at the end of the day, the US President will be the final tariff rate decision maker, and we know from experience we need to be ready to expect the unexpected.”
