Softwood availability across Great Britain could fall by close to 40 per cent between the mid-2030s and mid-2050s, putting domestic supply below current production levels within three decades. That is according to Forest Research’s 50-year Forecast of Softwood Timber Availability (2026), published this month by the UK government’s national forest science agency and covering the entire Great Britain estate out to 2076.
Averaged across the full 50-year window, annual availability sits at 14.4 million cubic metres, with Scotland alone contributing roughly 10 million cubic metres — around 70 per cent of the national total. The public estate faces the most consistent downward pressure, whilst private woodlands are expected to show peaks and troughs before tracking lower over the longer term.
“Softwood availability is not constant throughout the forecast period. It rises from 18.3 million cubic metres per annum in 2027–31 to a peak of 19.1 million cubic metres in 2032–36, before a steep decline to a minimum of 11.5 million cubic metres by 2052–56, which is below current approximate production levels. This is predominantly due to the uneven age class structure of British woodlands, and in part due to net increment being lower than the volumes harvested in the early forecast periods under the scenarios used in this forecast,” the report said.
Researchers did flag one near-term buffer. Current production across Great Britain runs at 25 per cent below available volumes, meaning unharvested carry-over timber is expected to smooth the production curve even as availability tightens sharply from the late 2030s. The 2026 edition also extends the forecast horizon from 25 to 50 years — a signal the agency itself is now modelling further out than at any point before.
The findings land directly into a live political fight over Britain’s timber dependency — as Wood Central reported last week, Confor, the country’s peak body for timber, is calling on the UK government to designate its reliance on imports a matter of national security: “The UK imports over 80 per cent of the timber we use. That is not simply a trade statistic. It is a structural strategic vulnerability,” said Stuart Goodall, Confor’s CEO, who launched the campaign at Westminster last week.
Goodall pressed the case for domestic investment on multiple fronts. “…If we are serious about building homes, strengthening British manufacturing and improving supply chain resilience, we must be serious about growing and using more homegrown timber,” he said. “Timber security is national security. Treating timber as a strategic national resource will help secure the materials we need to build homes, support rural economies and protect the UK from future global supply shocks.”
By the final five-year window of the forecast — 2072–76 — annual softwood availability settles at 11.3 million cubic metres, a figure Forest Research notes sits below even today’s production levels, and one that will land with force in Westminster as Confor’s national security campaign gathers pace.
Please note: Hero image is from an article Wood Central ran in October 2023 covering His Majesty, King Charles III’s visit to James Jones & Sons sawmill in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. James Jones & Sons is one of Europe’s largest integrated forest companies and supplies 45% of the UK’s I-Joist market.
