Russia’s timber production has hit its worst level since Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — with commercial harvests dropping ten per cent last year to just 176 million cubic metres, nearly a third below where the industry stood a decade ago.
That is according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which has formally declared the crisis systemic — a finding backed by the Moscow Times, which reported timber harvesting fell 13 per cent in 2024 compared to pre-war levels, with lumber production down 11 per cent and plywood output collapsing 23 per cent. The cause, analysts say, is structural. Not cyclical.
Before the war, Russia accounted for roughly 22 per cent of the global softwood lumber trade. Western companies exited en masse, equipment imports stopped, and FSC and PEFC stripped Russian timber of its sustainability certifications. Export revenue collapsed from $12.5 billion in 2021 to $9.8 billion.
China is now the last major market standing — and even that is slipping.
Last year, Fastmarkets reporter Sanjoy Narayan told the 2025 International Softwood Conference that Chinese volumes fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, as market prices remained depressed. And as bad as the market is right now, it’s not the biggest problem. That distinction belongs to the machines.
An estimated 90 per cent of imported harvesters and forwarders currently operating in Russia will cease to function by 2028, according to the intelligence assessment. Sanctions cut off access to the Western manufacturers — John Deere, Ponsse, and Komatsu Forest — that serviced the bulk of Russia’s professional logging fleet, and domestic machine builders cannot fill the gap, with the shortfall estimated at several thousand units over the next two to three years.
Today, Wood Central revealed that, rather than prop up the industry, the Kremlin is planning to raise rental rates on forest plots by between 40-50 per cent — a move the intelligence service warns will “further reduce the attractiveness of the forestry sector for investors and workers.” Compounding that are potential restrictions on bank account withdrawals inside Russia — a measure that would trap workers and capital inside a sector already haemorrhaging both.
Speaking before a Federation Council committee, Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Mikhail Yurin acknowledged the sector had entered a “downward trend,” flagging a worst-case drop of 20 to 30 per cent in output in 2026, with further declines possible into 2027 “if geopolitical conditions deteriorate further.”
- To learn more about the impact of Russia’s sanctions on the global supply chains for forest products, click here for Wood Central’s special feature.
