The US and China are closing in on “a historic trade deal,” which would be a major thaw in the budding trade war between the world’s two largest economies. That is according to officials tied to the White House, who said a trade deal is imminent, while Beijing officials have hailed “important first steps” after days of intense negotiations in Geneva.
The announcement came after the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told reporters that there had been “substantial progress” in talks in Geneva between his team and that of the Chinese vice-premier, He Lifeng, on defusing the trade war between the world’s two largest economies sparked by Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs. He, China’s top trade official, called the talks “candid” and said substantive progress had been made to reach an “important consensus”, with the two sides poised to issue a joint statement in the coming hours.
The thawing of relations could kick-start America’s timber trade.
Wood Central understands a deal could be a major fill-up for America’s budding log export industry, one of the unexpected casualties of the trade war. Until March, when China Customs suspended all logs at the port, China was responsible for buying 40% of all hardwoods and 38% of all softwoods traded from US shores, when Chinese officials found bark beetle and longhorn beetle infestation mere hours after Trump hit Chinese products with tariffs.
This includes Brandon Arbogast, owner of Valley Log Sales in Timberville, Virginia, who, according to Chinese-controlled state media, is grappling with unsold walnut used in furniture, flooring and cabinetry and shrinking cash flow after tariffs locked Arbogast out of the Chinese market:
“It’s not going too good. We are in a trade war. China takes about 60% of American hardwood, lumber, and logs, and they are such a big market that it makes the rest of the world play fair. It makes it very competitive. And with them not buying, it turns out there are a lot of logs on the market now. Since they are not buying, and people are trying to get the logs as cheaply as they can, the rich get richer, and the middle class suffer.”
What remains unknown, however, is the impact of current talks on Howard Lutnick’s investigation into the effect of lumber (and steel) exports on National Security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, due for publication in a matter of weeks – which according to Rudolf van Rensburg, a director of Margules Groome Consulting, will have a major impact on the supply of hardwood and softwood logs and lumber across the world.
