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Where’s the Wood? Agriculture to Squeeze Global Timber Supply

Furniture, lumber, mass timber, paper, packaging and biomass are now at risk as agriculture and forestry compete to gain control over a land.


Fri 30 Aug 24

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Up to 320 million hectares of global forests suitable for forest products (27% of the world’s forest area) are now at risk of being converted to agriculture, with climate change leading to a retreat of timber-producing boreal forests in the United States, Canada, China, and especially Russia.

That is according to new research published by the University of Cambridge; Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production, which reports that the scramble for wood and food is putting pressure on the world’s diminshing resources. It comes months after Wood Central reported that English Oak could become the cornerstone of future European timber, with trees likely to replace Beech as the dominant species in European forests.

Now, Wood Central understands that the Nature study used satellite data to show intensive forestry worldwide and predicted suitable agricultural land for the world’s key crops—rice, wheat, maize, soy, and potatoes—by 2100 under a series of best-case and worst-case scenarios.

“There’s only a finite area of suitable land on the planet where we can produce food and wood—two critical resources for society,” according to author co-leader Dr Oscar Morton from the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, adding that “as climate change worsens and agriculture is forced to expand northwards, there’s going to be increasing pressure on timber production.”

More than 25% of the world’s timber-producing forests could be lost to agriculture.

Under the worst-case scenario, where no action is taken to decarbonize society, Wood Central understands that over a quarter of existing forestry land—equivalent to the size of India—will become more suitable for agriculture before the end of the century. And even in the best-case scenario, the researchers found that there will be major changes in the regions ideal for timber and crop production.

“We’ve got to be thinking fifty years ahead because if we want timber in the future, we need to be planting it now,” said Dr Chris Bousfield, who also co-led the study. “The trees that will be logged by the end of this century are already in the ground—they’re on much slower cycles than food crops.”

Russia was the EU’s fifth largest trading partner in 2021, exporting more than $3 billion worth of timber to the bloc. (Photo Credit: EIA)
Russia is one of the world’s largest forest economies – and before the Ukraine War, exported more than $3 billion in timber products through the European Union. (Photo Credit: EIA)

The research found that 90% of the timber-producing forests that were most vulnerable were located in the northern hemisphere, with Russia—which, until the Ukraine War, was responsible for exporting huge volumes of lumber, plywood, mass timber, paper, and packaging into global chains—the primary driver of the timber-to-food conversion.

Global timber and food demand are both expected to double over next 30 years

In July, Wood Central reported that the post-pandemic “new normal” has fuelled a new spike in wood production, with more than 4 billion cubic metres produced in 2022 alone. At the same time, the FAO estimates that roundwood demand could grow by 49% between 2020 and 2050, fueled by the development of mass timber, biomass, and cellulosic products.

Compounding that surge is global food demand, projected to double by 2050 as the population grows and becomes more affluent. This, in turn, puts pressure on policy markets to push deeper and deeper into old-growth forests. “Shifting timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests is not a viable option because the trees in those regions have stood untouched for thousands of years,” the researchers said, with logging releasing huge amounts of carbon and threatening biodiversity.

Forests face increasing climate-related stress amid growing demand for their products, FAO report warns. (Image Credit: FILE #: 755690595 via Adobe Stock Images)
Forests face increasing climate-related stress amid growing demand for their products, FAO report warns. (Image Credit: FILE #: 755690595 via Adobe Stock Images)

“A major environmental risk of increasing competition for land between farming and forestry is that wood production moves into remaining areas of primary forest within the tropics or boreal zones,” according to Professor David Edwards, also from the Department of Plant Sciences, who added that “these are the epicentres of remaining global wilderness, and untouched tropical forests are the most biodiverse places on Earth.”

Global timber is one of the world’s most traded commodities

Timber production contributes US $1.5 trillion to national economies every year, making wood the 18th most traded global commodity. However, heat waves, forest fires—like Canada’s 2023 blazes—and the spread of pests like the Bark Beetle have led to huge forest losses.

“Climate change is already causing challenges for timber production. On top of that, there will be increased pressure from agriculture, creating a perfect storm of problems,” said Dr Bousfield.

“Securing our future wood supply might not seem as pressing as securing the food we need to eat and survive, according to Mr Morton: “But wood is just as integrated within our daily lives, and we need to develop strategies to ensure food and wood security in the future.”

Author

  • Jason Ross

    Jason Ross, publisher, is a 15-year professional in building and construction, connecting with more than 400 specifiers. A Gottstein Fellowship recipient, he is passionate about growing the market for wood-based information. Jason is Wood Central's in-house emcee and is available for corporate host and MC services.

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