Why Nationals Outpaced Teals to Win Key Seat in NSW’s Mid North Coast

More than 50% of teal aligned voters support the continuation of native forestry in the NSW mid-north coast according to polling conduced over the Easter long weekend.


Mon 05 May 25

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Voters in Cowper – a swing federal seat that includes Bellingen, Kempsey, Nambucca, and parts of Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie (the site of the soon-to-be established Great Koala National Park) have voted to re-elect Pat Conaghan in what amounts to a rare piece of good news for the Liberal-National Party coalition.

With 84.1% of the vote counted so far, Conaghan leads teal-aligned independent Caz Heise 53.2% to 46.8% – a swing of 0.8% to the Nationals and away from Heise, a vocal critic of native forestry in the seat. Yesterday, Conaghan declared victory in the seat, claiming he was “humbled” to retain the seat, beating out a general swing against the Liberal-National party coalition in New South Wales and across the country.

It comes after Wood Central last week reported on polling conducted by the Australian Forest Products Association (AFPA), which shows the vast majority of voters in the seat, tipped to be won by Teal-Independent Caz Heise, disagree with Heise on the future of native forestry. Diana Hallam, CEO of AFPA, said the result, which saw 726 residents polled by UComm over the Easter long weekend, shows strong voter support for native forestry in the region:

“Voters in Cowper need to be aware that if they vote for Caz Heise, they’re voting for a candidate who wants to shut native forestry down, a decision that would devastate the Mid-North Coast of NSW. Furthermore, according to our polling, Caz Heise’s position on native forestry is the opposite of what the majority of her voters want.”

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The seat of Cowper takes in a large area of the proposed Great Koala National Park, set to be announced by the NSW State Government over the coming weeks.
AFPA has shared insights from the polling with Wood Central below:
  • More than 70% of respondents either ‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’ that the NSW Mid-North Coast should maintain a sustainable native forestry industry.
  • 3 in 4 respondents believe state forests in the region should be maintained for recreational uses, like camping, horse riding and dog walking, over conversion to national park
  • 95% of respondents either ‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’ that timber and timber products should be labelled with their country of origin
  • Almost 60% of respondents disagreed that forestry plantations should be subject to any special new taxes.

The supply of nation-building hardwood timber is critical to the NSW economy, as it provides thousands of jobs and skills right along the supply chain, according to a 2023 Ernst + Young report, which also revealed that the industry employs more than 9,000 people, many in the Cowper seat.

“This polling is also a message to other Teals and industry opponents contesting the Federal Election that native forestry cannot just be crossed out with the flick of a pen. You’re dealing with people’s lives here, and without native forestry, the economic and community devastation would be far-reaching in places that have built themselves on the sector over decades, some places longer than that.”

Author

  • Jason Ross, publisher, is a 15-year professional in building and construction, connecting with more than 400 specifiers. A Gottstein Fellowship recipient, he is passionate about growing the market for wood-based information. Jason is Wood Central's in-house emcee and is available for corporate host and MC services.

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