The gap between people and sheep in New Zealand is closing fast, and it’s all primarily due to a rapidly expanding pine forestland, driving the decline in the flocks of sheep. That is according to Alan Thomson, CEO of Beef and Lamb New Zealand, who spoke to RNZ yesterday.
“Key to that is the recent land use change driven by afforestation. So we’ve seen whole sheep and beef farms converted into forestry for carbon credits,” he said.
Earlier this week, the NZ government, through Stats NZ, released new data showing about 4.5 sheep per person in New Zealand, compared to a peak of 22 in the early 1980s. Agricultural spokesperson Tehseen Islam said that as of June last year, there were 23.6 million sheep in New Zealand, a six million, or 21% drop compared to 10 years ago.
“While that’s a big drop from the early 80s, I still suspect that’s pretty high in terms of worldwide,” according to Islam, who said farmers were making decisions about the “most profitable use” of their land, which is a likely driver behind the decline in sheep numbers.
According to Islam, NZ’s grassland has dropped by about 10% over the same period—”this drop in grassland (also) coincides with large decreases in livestock being farmed on the land.”
The data shows deer had the biggest livestock fall, dropping about 26% to 709,000. Dairy cattle also fell 13%, or about 860,000 head of cattle, over the past decade, with a national herd now standing at 5.8 million.
According to Thomson, poor returns on wool were also a contributing factor—though there were some “green shoots” in the data—with global beef demand now reaching a 30-year low, aided to a significant degree by supply inside the United States standing “at an all-time low.”
“The price has gone ahead of sheep, so there’s been a modest conversion of sheep to cattle because of that market signal, but by far the biggest issue is these farms being converted into carbon forestry.”
The latest data comes after Wood Central last month revealed that farmers were taking advantage of loopholes in rules limiting full farm-to-forestry conversions. Kate Acland, chair of Beef + Lamb NZ, warned that more than 260,000 hectares of sheep and beef farmland were purchased for conversion to forestry between 2017 and 30 June 2024.
“For every 100,000 hectares planted, close to one million stock units are lost. Those lost stock units equate to lost export earnings and significant negative impacts on rural businesses and communities and our iconic farming landscapes,” Ackland said.
