The World Cement Association (WCA) has predicted that global demand for cement and clinker production will drop far more than expected, with the peak body for cement predicting that the use of global cement will drop by as much as 30% from 4.2 billion tonnes per year to three billion between now and 2050.
That is according to a new white paper, Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand, which predicts that demand for clinker, the main ingredient for Portland cement, will drop from 2.8 billion tonnes per year to less than 1.9 billion tonnes and perhaps as low as 1 billion tonnes in response to, amongst other things, growing demand for mass timber and geopolymers.
According to Ian Riely, WCA’s CEO, demand is influenced by a decrease in new city developments in some countries as population growth has plateaued: “Several factors drive the decrease in cement and clinker demand.”
“Slowing infrastructure and construction activity in markets like China have significantly reduced consumption, where demand has fallen from 2.4 billion tonnes per annum in 2020 to an estimated 1.8 billion tonnes per annum in 2024. (At the same time) declining or stabilising populations in developed regions have lessened the need for large-scale new developments, further contributing to the reduction in demand.”
In addition, Mr Riley said that advancements in clinker alternatives and supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) have helped reduce the reliance on carbon-intensive clinker: “The growing emphasis on reducing carbon emissions is encouraging the adoption of alternative materials, optimised designs, and strategies to minimise waste,” he said.
“The development of clinker-free cement and low-carbon alternatives plays a key role in this transition. Clinker demand is projected to fall from 2.8 billion tonnes per annum in 2024 to less than 1.9 billion by 2050, possibly as low as one billion, depending on the adoption rate of SCMs and alternative binders,” Mr Riley continued. “The analysis assumes a steady reduction in clinker due to increased SCM availability and technological advancements.”
Wood Central understands that the WCA published its white paper to provide an accurate overview of global cement and clinker use and inform built environment professionals about planning for lower-carbon building practices: “The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation,” Mr Riley said. “As we move towards a decarbonised future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies, and investments align with reality.”
Speaking to Dezeen, Mr Riley hopes the report’s findings will encourage the architecture and construction professions to continue lowering their projects’ carbon footprints by designing with minimal concrete and adopting more low-carbon building materials, such as mass timber and geopolymers: “The decline in cement demand signals a shift towards more sustainable architectural practices, including innovative materials, optimised designs and carbon reduction.
“Lower cement and clinker demand directly contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of construction projects, aligning with global sustainability goals,” Mr Riley added. “This transition offers an opportunity to create more environmentally friendly buildings and reduce the long-term environmental impact of construction.”
Why 3.5 billion cubic metres of timber is key to the post-concrete world.
In June, Wood Central reported that global cement, responsible for fueling massive infrastructure projects in the West and, most recently, China, was entering a long-term decline, with mass timber, geopolymers, epoxies, and improved material software fuelling the new wave.
That is according to Michael Barnard, a climate futurist, strategist, and author who published ‘Cement Displacement and Decarbonization through 2100,’ projecting the decade-by-decade change to the building and construction market over the next 75 years. Mr Banard is the Chief Strategist for the TFIE (The Future is Electric), consulting to billion-dollar hedge funds and multinationals – and yesterday, he presented his findings to the Indian Smart Grid Forum.
And the report’s findings are clear: the global demand for Portland Cement, starting from 2030, will experience a rapid and continuous decline – with shrinking demand for mega projects, coupled with the increasing cost from carbon pricing and regulations making Portland Cement uncompetitive: “If it were three times as expensive or limestone weren’t ubiquitous, we would be using existing alternatives, which are usually lighter and leaner for the same structural virtues,” Mr Barnard said.
“You’ll note that it’s starting to decline in this projection, slightly by 2030 and more steeply in coming years,” he said, due to several reasons: “First is that cement demand fell in the West from 1990 to 2020 as those affluent regions had already built most of their infrastructure and urban areas by that time,” with “the vast majority of the growth was in China, as with everything else.”
“With the rise in the cost of cement and the demand reduction, the alternatives spring into action,” Mr Barnard said, “in my assessment, the largest of these is likely to be engineered timber,” adding that “structural strength is equal to reinforced concrete with a fifth the mass. Every ton of engineered timber displaces 4.8 tons of reinforced concrete, hence the roughly 0.5 tons of cement required for the concrete.”
- To learn more about Mr Barnard’s work, read the full presentation at Clean Technica.
