New Zealand’s tree planting numbers are wrong, with the actual planting “about half of the government’s projection for 2024, according to James Treadwell, president of New Zealand’s Insitute of Foresters, concerned that planting numbers will decline further next year.
The numbers came from a draft emissions reduction plan published by Climate Change Minister Simon Watts yesterday. The plan strongly focuses on forest sequestration to meet climate targets in what the document repeatedly calls a “least-cost” net emissions approach.
“This government is committed to a least-cost, net-based approach, which will maximise the emissions reduction value of every dollar we spend. It also acknowledges the role that offsets like forestry and other carbon removals play in bringing us closer to our emissions reduction targets,” says the draft plan, now open for public consultation.
And whilst it acknowledges that relying on forestry has risks, it comes down to the “low-cost” option of using exotic trees (pine trees) rather than focusing more effort on cutting emissions.
“While a forestry-led response could be the least costly in the short term and provide some co-benefits (such as erosion control), it also risks losing stored carbon in the trees through wildfire, pests or weather events. The government has had to judge the likelihood and scale of these benefits and risks in forming its least-cost strategy,” it says.
Mr Treadwell has welcomed the government’s focus on emission reductions but wants a “more realistic” approach to afforestation targets and cleared guidelines on restrictions.
“We are encouraged by the efforts to stabilise the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and recognise the vital role of afforestation in achieving New Zealand’s climate targets,” Mr Treadwell said. “Afforestation of all types plays a part in our country’s strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and we support all initiatives to increase forest cover.”
Nonetheless, Mr Treadwell has serious concerns about the proposed afforestation restrictions, which remain “unclear.” Instead, he urges the government “to provide more transparency and clarity on this matter to ensure afforestation efforts are not hindered.”
In addition, Mr Treadwell called for the government to reassess projections to ensure decisions are based on realistic and achievable targets: “Accurate forecasting and transparent implementation strategies are imperative to contribute effectively to the nation’s climate objectives.”
The numbers in detail:
- New Zealand has maximum emissions budgets for every year until 2035. These start at 71 million tonnes this year, falling to 69 in 2025, then to 66 million in 2026 and 63 in 2027. By 2035, the annual budget is 49 million tonnes of planet-heating emissions.
- According to government projections, NZ is on track to be 6 million tonnes under budget from 2022-5, 2 million tonnes under budget from 2026-2030, and 17 million tonnes over budget from 2031 to 2035. That is significantly worse than the projection at the same time a year ago. Accounting changes and different methods caused some of this shift; however, some of it resulted from policy changes under the Coalition.
- A comparison table in the document shows emissions from 2022-5 will be 11 million tonnes higher under the government’s new proposed policies than estimated a year ago under Labour. From 2026-2030, they will be 19 million tonnes higher than under Labour policies from a year ago, but still with a good chance of being under budget. For 2030-2035, emissions will be 24 million tonnes higher than estimated a year ago under Labour and 17 million tonnes over budget.
Consultation on the draft is open until August 21, 2024. For more information, visit the Ministry of Environments website.
