The vast majority of timber products – including rough and surfaced lumber, plywood, MDF and other wood-based panels – will be exempt from Donald Trump’s ‘liberation reciprocal tariffs’ introduced yesterday. However, these products – along with automobiles, pharmaceutical goods and semiconductors – will be subject to a national security investigation, with findings provided to Donald Trump within weeks.
That is according to Fordaq, which overnight published a new anslysis warning that most 44 HS codes goods—identified in the White House-produced list— will be subject to the National Security probe (s232) being run by the US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick.
“Our analysis is that this is more of a matter of concern. As we understand it, the Trump administration sees these products as part of product groups that they wish to permanently bring back to the US and are going to be subject to special (= higher duties) moving forward.”
Details of New US reciprocal tariffs and implications for wood industry – published by Fordaq overnight.
Today, Wood Central spoke to Rudolf van Rensburg, a director of Margules Groome Consulting, who published a comprehensive article, Tariff Shockwaves: The Global Reordering of Log and Wood Products Trade, yesterday.
“These measures are expected to significantly reshape global wood trade flows,” he said, referencing the report. “Some countries may begin shifting their focus away from the US market, while others—less affected by the new tariffs—could seek to expand their exports to the United States.”
And to better understand this impact, the Margules Groom Consulting team analysed the 2024 US log and wood product import data, pointing out that the US imports more than USD 47.3 billion worth of primary, secondary, and manufactured products.
“The value of tertiary, or manufactured wood products imported into the US in 2024 was more than double that of primary and secondary products. These include furniture, carpentry (e.g., windows and doors), engineered wood products (e.g., CLT, GLT, I-beams), and flooring. Total manufactured wood imports amounted to USD 31.9 billion from 164 countries.”
Tariff Shockwaves: The Global Reordering of Log and Wood Products Trade – published by Margules Groome Consulting yesterday.
“Wooden furniture and furniture components dominated this category, valued at USD 27.1 billion, followed by carpentry items (USD 2.6 billion), flooring (USD 1.6 billion), and engineered products (USD 586 million). The top exporters of manufactured wood products to the US were Vietnam (USD 11.5 billion), China (USD 4.8 billion), and Canada (USD 3.6 billion).”
According to the report, a gang of eight countries (including Vietnam, China, Canada, Mexico (USD 2.25 billion, Malaysia (USD 1.466 billion), Italy (USD 1.441 billion), Indonesia (USD 1.18 billion) and Brazil (USD 1.015 billion) are responsible for more than 85% of trade into the US. Pointing to China and Vietnam—the two largest wooden furniture manufacturers—Margules Groome said the tariffs could have a knock-on effect, leading, in Vietnam’s case, to “input shortages, higher prices, and forced changes in sourcing and production strategies.”
However, the tariffs impact more than just China, Vietnam, and the other major exporters: “Even regions like Africa, which accounted for only USD 103 million of US timber imports in 2024, may be indirectly affected as global trade flows shift.”
“The long-term implications will depend on how supply chains adjust, how trade partners respond, and whether alternative markets emerge to absorb redirected flows. Close monitoring and further analysis will be necessary to understand the full impact on the global timber economy.”
