Housing affordability has emerged as one of the top political hot-button issues shaping the United States presidential election—with nearly one-third of all renters (31.6%) saying that affordability is a “top three issue,” compared to just 17.1% of owner-occupiers. That is, according to a new survey revealing that Harris voters are slightly more likely than Trump voters to rank housing affordability as a top issue:
“Among voters supporting Kamala Harris, 25.1% listed housing affordability as a key issue, compared to 20.4% of Donald Trump voters,” the survey said. Before adding that “the leading concern among respondents was the economy, ” nearly half (46%) of all respondents listed it as a top-three issue. Next came inflation (40.4%), health care (26.3%), housing affordability (25.1%) and crime and safety (23.5%).”
As it stands, the United States has one of the highest percentages of renters in the Western World—36 % of all households, according to the 2019 Census—with this population highly concentrated in Democratic-controlled Coastal Areas.
“Many Americans broke into homeownership during the pandemic thanks to record-low mortgage rates, but many were priced out because housing prices surged due to sky-high demand,” says Daryl Fairweather, the Chief Economist for Seattle-based Redfin. “Elevated mortgage rates are exacerbating those high prices and making it difficult for first-time buyers to afford a home – one reason renters focus on housing affordability.”
Trump or Harris – Who is best to ease the housing squeeze?
In August, Wood Central reported that Harris and Trump are treading a tightrope on the politics of real estate, with Wood Central showing that the multifamily lending market (considered a new sweet spot for mass timber construction) nosedived 49% last year, with just 42% of the $246.2 billion in loans written by Government-Sponsored Enterprises:
“Multifamily lending fell by roughly half in 2023 as sales transactions declined and far fewer property owners sought to refinance their loans,” according to Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Head of Commercial Real Estate Research, with Wood Central revealing that developers are now crowded out of a market – flooded with additional lumber.
Are new timber systems part of the solution?
Nick Milestone, the Vice President of Building and Construction for Mercer Mass Timber, one of North America’s largest timber manufacturers, said developers can now “use full structural steel frames with cross-laminated timber floor decks (to build) full mass timber residential developments” to build affordably, sustainably, and quickly.
In August, Diana Yentel, the President and CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, said both candidates are now targeting low-income rather than middle-class housing to secure voters on the fence: “Before 2020, when presidential candidates talked about housing, it was always about middle-class home ownership.”
Now, both parties are prioritising the issue “much more than they have before,” including “the needs of people with the lowest incomes,” said Ms Yentel, in part because of “the severity itself” of the crisis.
Three weeks before the election, Trump is the new favourite to snare the presidency.
Former President Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris have improved in nearly every swing state, according to Polymarket, an online betting platform. According to the oddsmaker, Trump is favoured to prevail in Arizona (68%), Georgia (64%), Pennsylvania (54%), Michigan (52%), North Carolina (63%), and Wisconsin (52%). The only swing state where Harris maintains a slim lead is Nevada, where she holds a 51% chance of victory compared to Trump’s 49%.
While Harris still maintains a substantial lead in the popular vote prediction (68% to Trump’s 32%), the state-by-state breakdown on Polymarket suggests a race that has shifted in Trump’s favour where it matters most: the Electoral College.
- To learn more about the housing policies tabled by (former) President Trump and Vice President Harris and the role of new timber systems in easing the squeeze for multifamily construction, click on Wood Central’s special feature.
