More than 90,000 cubic metres of log exports left Australian posts for China last month, a 32% increase from February figures. This represents a new high point since China resumed trade with Australia after pausing it over bark beetle concerns.
The new data provided by China Customs reveals that over 66,000 cubic metres of sawlog (an increase from 51,500 in February) and 25,600 cubic metres of pulp (an increase from 18,300 last month) were in cargo at Chinese ports – with both a rapid rise on pre-2024 numbers.
However, whilst the figures point to an improved relationship, it is a steep decline from the pre-COVID peak, with China taking 500,000 cubic metres of softwood (or 99% of total exports) in May 2019.
In addition to log exports, woodchip exports are also on the rise, with China Customs reporting that Australian exporters were responsible for more than 228,000 cubic metres of wood chips through China in March—an increase of 3.8% from last month.
It comes as Wood Central reported earlier this month that New Zealand radiata pine—by far China’s largest market for log imports—is now responsible for 85% of logs “jammed” at Chinese ports, with PF Olsen reporting that more than 3.4 million cubic metres of NZ logs are awaiting delivery at China’s mega ports.
According to PF Olsen’s Director of Sales and Marketing, Scott Downs, the daily off-take at Chinese ports is 60,000 cubic metres per day, which means that as of late March, “there are over two months of inventory in China.”
More broadly, Chinese total log imports jumped to almost 2.4 million cubic metres for March, with New Zealand (responsible for more than 70% of total imports), Japan (5.9%), Poland (4.8%), Canada (4.4%), Germany (4%), and Australia (2.7%) being the country’s largest markets.
However, the total increase in imports could mask a long-term slowdown in logs with Rudolf van Rensburg, the co-author of China—Forest, Log & Lumber Outlook, forecasting that China will pivot from raw logs to lumber imports (now dominated by Russia), thanks to a slowdown in global harvesting in log markets.
“We anticipate that the growth in Chinese lumber exports will offset the decline in log exports amid a ban on log exports from Ukraine and Russia, bark beetle infestations in Europe, and a slowdown in NZ harvesting,” Mr van Rensburg told Wood Central.
To learn more about China and its role in the global forest economy, click on Wood Central’s exclusive interviews with the authors of China—Forest, Log & Lumber Outlook.
